Omicron Prevented More Deaths than the Vaccine this Winter, According to LA County Public Health Statistics

February 10, 2022 - In a comparison between 5 weeks during last winter's Covid-19 surge and the current now-ebbing surge, while there were far more infections this winter, there were a far large number of deaths last winter.

In a span surrounding each surge's peak, there were 24% fewer deaths overall this year and only 10% of the number of deaths per case. Using the following statistics, taken from the LA County Department of Public Health, it is necessary to conclude that the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 is far less deadly, to both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.

2021 surge (December 30, 2020-February 3, 2021)

Cases: 395,797

Deaths: 7,583

Peak number of people hospitalized: 8,098

2022 surge (January 4, 2022-February 3, 2021)

Cases: 977,066

Deaths: 1,884

Peak number of people hospitalized: 4,814

The deaths per case for the 2021 surge was .0192. The deaths per case for the 2022 surge was .00193. The rate was 9.948 times higher last year. Even for the unvaccinated this year, the deaths per case for the 2022 surge was .00208. This is 10.8% of the death rate during the 2021 surge.

While vaccines lowered the death per case rate in 2022 all the way down to .000951, it is clear that Omicron itself was the dominating factor in lowering the death rate this winter. The vaccines halved the rate, but Omicron divided it by 10.

If everyone who got infected this winter had been vaccinated - using these ratios - it is possible 518 deaths could have been prevented out of a total of the 908,855 cases for which unvaccinated data is available. The overall survival rate during this winter's surge was 99.81%.