Could Bernie Sanders Really Win California?

Update: Bernie Sanders is in Santa Monica again tonight, Sunday night, campaigning this time at the Santa Monica Pier. In Culver City, has has been seen at Tanner's Coffee on Sepulveda. The guy is really trying hard, that's for sure!

In the last 30 days, the State of California has registered 650,000 new voters, 500,000 Democrats, and 138,000 Republicans. This is a hint that young people are registering, specifically so they can vote for Bernie Sanders. This author predicts he will win the California primary, and surprise the Hillary Clinton campaign.

The New York Times and LA Times agree that the Vermont Senator is close to leading Hillary Clinton in the polls. In fact one poll, released May 26 by the Public Policy Institute of California, showed Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Sanders among likely voters.

About half of California voters will have voted by mail prior to the polls even opening on Tuesday, June 7th. But the polling places are also important, and Sanders Voters are much more energized and much more likely to show up than Clinton supporters.

This was supposed to be a showdown between two family scions; Hillary of the Clinton's, and Jeb of the Bushes. On the Republican side, "Low Energy Jeb" was almost the first candidate of 17 to drop out.

On the Democratic side, ironically, almost the diametric opposite has happened. A total of six major candidates entered the race starting April 12, 2015, when former Secretary of State and New York Senator Hillary Clinton formally announced her second bid for the presidency. She was followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb, and Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Lessig. There was some speculation that incumbent Vice President Joe Biden would also enter the race, but he chose not to run. A draft movement was started to encourage Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren to seek the presidency, but Warren declined to run.

The other candidates quickly dropped out of the democratic primary.

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Webb (citing frustration with Democratic Party leadership) and Chafee withdrew due to low polling numbers. Lawrence Lessig withdrew after the rules of a debate were changed such that he would no longer qualify to participate.[3] Clinton won Iowa by the closest margin in the history of the caucuses over Sanders, in what would be a rare caucus victory for her. O'Malley suspended his campaign after a distant third-place finish, leaving Clinton and Sanders the only two candidates. The electoral battle turned out to be more competitive than expected, with Sanders winning the New Hampshire primary while Clinton scored victories in the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primary. On three different Super Tuesdays Clinton secured numerous important wins while Sanders scored various victories in between.

Precisely because of the tenacity of the Sanders campaign, Hillary Rodham Clinton is perceived as weak, both by the electorate and the Washington elite. The two are neck and neck in the California Democratic primary, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released today. Among surveyed voters likely to participate in the California primary, the former Secretary of State polled at 49 percent and Sanders at 47 percent. These numbers are similar to those in a poll released last week from PPIC, which showed Clinton at 46 percent and Sanders at 44 percent.

Clinton continues to hold a sizable lead over Sanders in her national delegate count, merely 73 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination. Clinton currently has 2,310 bound delegates and super-delegates who have pledged to vote for Clinton at the Democratic National Convention.

The California primary has reasonably been considered the last big prizes of the primary season. Sanders and Clinton will be battling for 546 delegates in the California Democratic primary, scheduled for June 7. Mrs. Clinton will probably garner the number of delegates she needs to win the Democratic nomination after votes are counted in New Jersey, where polls will close before California's because of the difference in time zones. But her loss in California will haunt her campaign into the convention.

According to NBC, the poll also showed that Sanders held a 36-percent advantage among voters younger than 45 and a 44-point lead among first-time voters. Even if Clinton wins the primary in California, these voters will continue to play an important role in the general election.

Also on June 7, Clinton and Sanders will compete in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and North Dakota for 235 delegates.